Labour's support for triggering Article 50 is shameful

So here's the thing - I completely get why Jeremy Corbyn wants to support triggering Article 50. He's seen the polls and done the electoral maths and concluded he'd rather not see a fresh election called. Fine. That's rational.

The problem is, this is a totally shameful abandonment of the interests of the very people he claims to care so much about, made more shameful by the fact that if Labour organised properly, there is at least some chance that Article 50 would be prevented or at least delayed. This isn't just symbolic. Without Labour, Brexit is a certainty.

But why is it so shameful to represent the clearly expressed views of (many of) his constituents?

Well, because among all the sturm und drang over Brexit, one fact has got lost - the people who will lose most from this are the poorest and the most vulnerable - the people in post-industrial Northern constituencies that Paul Nuttall wants to con.

Shortly after Brexit, a few British workers had their livelihoods quite publicly put at risk. The bankers of Canary Wharf? Lawyers in the City? The Private Equity industry?

No. It was the 6,500 or so Nissan workers in Sunderland. Suddenly, their entire economic model was rubbished. I am permanently astonished at how quickly their heads were on the block and how few people seemed to notice that the axe was falling far away from the experts and the evil capitalists. On 23 June 2016, the workers of Sunderland went from working in a productive plant, more or less with their fate in their own hands, to being at risk. Their jobs were saved by still undisclosed promises from the government. Fantastic. They are now dependent on the goodwill of a Tory government.

If you were a Northern industrial worker, would you trust the Tories with your job?

There is, I admit, a certain amount of self interest in this. I don't want to leave the EU. I think it will end badly for this country and I am, frankly, embarrassed by the parochialism we are collectively showing to the world.

There is a scenario in which Brexit could work. But that almost certainly involved quite high levels of immigration (good) and preventing that is the only thing the government really wants.

But here's the thing - chances are, Brexit won't hurt me that hard. My job isn't dependent on British clients and it it moves to Paris, Frankfurt or Madrid, I'll probably move with it. I'll be gutted to leave London and gutted to see the city of my birth reduced to a backwater but in the grand scheme of things I won't suffer that much.

When Jeremy Corbyn votes in favour of Article 50, as surely he will, he won't be screwing over me (though I'm sure he'd like to), he'll be screwing over the people he claims to care about because ultimately, he cares about their votes more than he cares about their livelihoods. And for that, he should be ashamed of himself.

Brexit. Still crazy after all these years?

Let's be clear about this, leaving the EU may now be mainstream, but that doesn't mean it's no longer a batshit crazy idea.

— James Torrance (@TheLiberalTory) May 13, 2013

That was my perspective back in 2013, but as David Cameron's EU renegotiation reaches its climax, I'm starting to wonder whether it still holds true. The Prime Minister has largely failed. He traveled to Brussels today ready to be shut down uncompromisingly by Angela Merkel. The EU is calling Cameron's bluff, daring him to campaign for Brexit and the grand bargain he had once hoped for is not going to happen. Instead, he is scrabbling around searching for something he can sell to a country increasingly keen on leaving.

Cameron's failure is not just a political challenge for him, it is a significant challenge for those of us who would like to remain in the EU. How do we respond to the fact that, faced with the threat of Brexit, the EU has shrugged its shoulders and told us in no uncertain terms "if you're going to be like that, maybe you should just fuck off"?

The awkward conclusion I'm slowly coming to is that they might be right. We maybe, just maybe, would be better off out. But how have we arrived here? Two and a half years ago, leaving was a batshit crazy idea. How is it now something I can get my head around?

Saving the patient by removing the limb?
Worryingly, the EU is starting to get its head around it too. Herman Van Rompuy told the BBC today that the UK's departure would be "an amputation" - interesting diplomatic language. It appeals to the British ego by suggesting that the EU would feel pain from our departure but does not mean he thinks it's a bad idea. Amputation is generally good for a patient, a way to remove persistent disease. It is risky and painful, true, but the consequences are worse. The disease must be prevented from spreading. It is a surrender to the inevitable. Has Van Rompuy given up on pleasing the British?

Cameron's pathetic effort
Part of Van Rombuy's ambivalence probably stems from Britain's attitude over the last few years. The Prime Minister's attempt at a renegotiation has been lamentable. Instead of constructive engagement about the future of the EU, it has been a series of childish and parochial demands for concessions that would benefit nobody but Britain. In the face of an inevitable halt in Eurozone expansion, Cameron could have lobbied for more recognition for those left outside the club. He could have engaged eurosceptics across the continent, forming a bulwark against the pressure for ever closer union. Every member experiences irritants emanating from Brussels and many countries are concerned by the integration forced on them by crises within the Eurozone. Why is there not a deal on the table with something for everyone? Why has Britain not taken the role many of us would like it to - as a constructive leader of those states who view their future as independent nations rather than as mere cogs in a vast European hegemon? Cameron's tactics have made that impossible.

Europe's miscalculation
The early responses were dismissive. Cameron's renegotiation was not serious and should not be taken seriously. It was a sop to the right wing of his party, an attempt to use geopolitics to win internecine party wars. Even if it wasn't, until May this year it was clear that Cameron would never be able to deliver a referendum. He would either lose altogether in 2015 or be locked into another coalition with a pro-EU partner. There would be no referendum, no campaign to leave and no need for a serious renegotiation. Even if there was, this was just a niche pre-occupation of xenophobes, closet racists and howl-at-the-moon nutters. No campaign to leave would ever succeed. The British people, wise and risk-averse, would never countenance it.

I was convinced of this too, and still hope to be proved right. I saw millions of pencils hover over the 'leave' option. The frustrations with Brussels (real and imagined) would rage, pushing for Brexit. But then the fear would take hold. The businesses that would suffer, the uncertainty, the clients lost and subsidies given up would all be too much and we wouldn't take the risk. Normal service would resume.

This may not be true, however. Narrowing polls suggest a public gradually getting comfortable with leaving. The 'don't knows' may be breaking towards Brexit, even with its current inept and chaotic campaigns. Moreover, it is a mistake to see Euroscepticism as a niche concern of Farage-fanciers, outweighed by the silent majority of committed British Europhiles. British voters don't like the EU. They just don't care that much. The EU has been an accepted fact of life and despite their distaste for it, the British public have generally not allowed it to govern their voting intentions. Ask William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith. Forced to express their opinion in the voting booth, however, who knows how they'll behave.

Brexit's still madder than a bag of weasels though... right?
So the outists have had a good two and a half years. Despite UKIP's electoral failure, Britain still seems closer than ever to leaving the EU. But that doesn't mean they might actually be right. Right?

The issue is not that Cameron's renegotiation has strengthened their argument, but weakened the case for staying in. The true madness of the Brexit argument lay in its contradictions. It claims that we have no influence over the EU now but our economic heft would guarantee us a seat at the table in the future. It claims that free trade with the EU is possible while maintaining freedom from Brussels trading standards. Free movement between France and Germany would work and our Spanish holidays would be visa free but there'd be no more pesky immigrants (apart from the ones we need of course). It's the have your cake and eat it campaign.

The arguments to stay in though are just as fantastic. We dream of a Britain at the heart of Europe, guiding and influencing, saving Europe's people from the wild imaginings of the Eurocrats, taken seriously on the world stage as a serious power in the world's largest economy.

Well... that's for the birds.

Europe interested in our leadership or concerned about our influence. Europe's own leaders have their vision and they are not about to be diverted from it. We have played the biggest, most threatening card in our hand and been greeted with a shrug. In the face of Eurozone crises and the potential collapse of Schengen, Britain's concerns are of no consequence. European leaders would rather hold on grimly to their own fantasy of European integration than accommodate any alternatives. Europe is moving in their direction whether we like it or not.

If that's the case, though, if the great ship of Europe really cannot be shifted in its course, do we want to lash ourselves to its mast once again? Do we want to start another 40 years of argument and resentment? Maybe we would be better off parting ways.

I'm starting to give up on my own European fantasy; and once I've done that, maybe Brexit won't seem so crazy after all.

There is a positive case for the Union - but Darling might lose if he makes it

During last night's independence debate between Alastair Darling and Alex Salmond, an oft repeated criticism was levelled at the Unionist campaign - that while they were good at picking holes in the SNP's plans, they had no positive reasons for staying together. This is true. Better Together's positive messaging hasn't really advanced beyond "we're better off together", which doesn't really progress anything.

I firmly believe that there is a positive case to be made for the Union. However, in the current political climate in Scotland, it may do more harm than good to the Unionist cause.

I have a Scottish name, Scottish heritage and Scottish grandparents. My interest in Scotland's future is not purely as an English observer. Nevertheless, the Englishman inside me will be sad if Scotland leaves. The Union has been a tremendous success. A great many British successes belong to Scots and to turn away from that shared history (or, worse, to bicker over who deserves credit) would be a great shame. Yet our history is not the source of the Union's value. Rather, it is the process of partnership that we should value. We are richer because we are together. Not only materially but also culturally. We share in each other's successes and support each other when things get difficult. Bad times are more bearable and good times enhanced because we experience them together. We are generous together but mean and parochial when driven apart. Separated, we bicker over trivial things, retreat to our national stereotypes and generally become a worse version of ourselves. Together, we are more open, more varied, more tolerant and enjoy a more colourful national life. Independence for Scotland would end this partnership and turn us into adversaries, obsessed with scoring petty victories at the expense of both our peoples.

Darling could make this argument, yet to do so would include an assumption with little popularity in Scotland - that the English have brought anything to the party at all. Understandably, the Better Together campaign have positioned themselves firmly on the side of Scotland and (implicitly) in at least moderate opposition to England. To suggest that Scotland has anything to thank England for is to suggest Scottish weakness and vulnerability, to lack faith in the abilities of Scots and to pour water on the flames of Scottish pride.

As a result, the question being debated is not how the two groups can be the best versions of themselves, but how Scotland can extract the best deal for itself. The offer of further devolution exacerbates this. Vote for independence and you get to keep everything Scotland has but risk losing it all if things don't go to plan. Vote for the Union and you might be able to get more from the English than you get now. England seems a cow to be milked - an adversary rather than a partner.

Who cares about the debate as long as the vote goes the right way? Two things: if Salmond wins, Scotland will not float off into the North Atlantic. We will still need to negotiate a settlement and find a way to live together. Given the tenor of the debate, attitudes may harden on all sides. British politicians, now beholden to an English electorate, will be no friends of the Scottish people. They may find no votes in reasonableness, but a great many in hard line venality. Similarly, Salmond's "mandate" will give him the confidence to hector, bully and make demands (if he wasn't given to that already). Secondly, even if the Union prevails, the partnership may already be ruined. Watching last night's debate (particularly the comments from the audience), I was struck by the thought that if Scots hate the English so much, maybe they are better off out. A No vote will still leave a bitter taste if it seems Scotland has concluded that English pockets are more easily picked from within the Union. The partnership that has proved so successful will be severely damaged and we will all be worse off. 

Today's most depressing piece of journalism?

Now I know this is probably an insanely futile exercise but I read something today that I could scarcely believe and feel must be responded to. I feel this way not because I have particularly strong feelings about trains (despite what follows). Rather, it’s incredibly depressing that journalists are willing and able to publish coruscating opinion-forming pieces with almost no interrogation of the facts presented. I’m sure similar pieces get published every day in every paper, informing people’s views and, ultimately, changing the way they vote. And that’s sad.

Anyway, for those wanting to know what brought this on, here goes:

A quite extraordinary article was published today in the Guardian [EDIT, here's a link http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/04/rail-privatisation-train-operators-profit?CMP=twt_fd]. In it, this esteemed journal’s Economics Leader Writer, Aditya Chakrabortty, described rail privatisation is “legalised larceny”. Fair enough, that’s an opinion of sorts and not, on its own, worthy of comment. However, the basis for this claim was something bizarre. According to Chakrabortty, the proof of this theft lies in the lamentable record train companies have of investing in services. He came to this conclusion on the basis of some analysis by the Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change (Cresc). This analysis looked at the average the return on capital employed (ROCE) for train companies last year (2012). The idea was to show how much profit the companies earned for every pound invested in the business. If the number was low, they’d be investing lots and not earning a huge profit. A high number would be proof that the industry was busy bleeding the country dry while lining shareholders’ and executives’ pockets. Cresc’s answer was that last year, the average return was 147%.

147%!!!

Chakrabortty accurately identifies this as an astronomical number – comparing it to Barclays’ ambitions of a ROCE of 10%. To give you an idea of what that means, a pound invested in a train company would generate almost 15 times the profit of a pound invested in one of the UK’s largest banks. Chakrabortty makes the comparison of buying a house and selling it the following year at a 147% markup. Wow.

The problem is that this number seems quite crazy. How do we know? By applying something Chakrabortty clearly doesn’t bother with when having his biases confirmed – a little scepticism.

Because I clearly have remarkably little in the way of a life, I looked at the annual report for First Group for 2013 (available here). This isn’t perfect. First Group is a big business and the report doesn’t give me a detailed breakdown of the balance sheet of its UK Rail business. However, it does tell me the revenue and operating profit of the UK Rail business and the ROCE of the group as a whole. Here are a few things I found out:

• First Group’s overall ROCE is between 10% and 12% (or between 12 and 15 times smaller than Cresc’s claims its UK Rail business generates). This is possible – its other divisions could be loss making, for example [they’re not].
• In 2012, First Group’s UK Rail division made an Operating Profit of £110.5m from Revenue of £2.5bn – a 4% profit margin.
• This is pretty strange for a business with such an incredible Return on Capital.
• If Cresc’s numbers are right, then First Group has only £75m of capital employed in its business of transporting hundreds of thousands of people across the country every year.
• Wikipedia tells me First Group has about 260 trains in the UK. That works out at £289,000 per train. A whole train for less than £300k! And yet, Kent Rail tells me that First Group’s most common train (the British Rail Class 319) costs £306k a year to rent (here).

All of this makes Chakrabortty’s claims pretty hard to believe. I could be wrong. But if I am, this is a truly incredible story worthy of more than a spurt of criticism on the comment pages of Tuesday’s Guardian. It might be that First Group is totally unrepresentative of the industry but it’s the industry’s biggest player so this seems unlikely.

I don’t know where Cresc got their figures because they’re not provided in the article. My guess would be they’ve misunderstood how to calculate ROCE and have ignored the long term debt that provides most of the funding for many businesses and around 75% of First Group’s total capital employed.

If I’m right, this article should be retracted immediately.

Isn't it about time we learned to embrace immigration?

According to the Daily Mail a substantial number, “probably tens of thousands”, of the 300,000 foreign students who come to the UK every year “are economic migrants seeking a back door into the UK”. Indeed, net migration into the UK remains stubbornly above 200,000 a year, supported by sham colleges and the incompetent management of London Metropolitan University.

Good.

It’s about time we all woke up to the fact that immigration is a good thing. Some polls show that 80% of us support the government’s target to reduce net immigration to tens of thousands every year. I am not one of them. While the Daily Mail is right that immigration places some additional burden on public services like education and housing, it is wrong about everything else. 80% of the country, including the Prime Minister and his Government, are wrong about immigration.

Immigrants have, for centuries, provided tremendous impetus to our economy and our culture. This is more than just curries and Mo Farah. Immigration is a part of the fabric of our nation. While it is now a cliché to assert that most of the UK population are descended from immigrants, it is rare for the importance of this fact to be considered seriously. It is not just an accusation of hypocrisy. It tells us something important about who we are and what binds us together as occupants of this small island on the edge of Europe. Almost every family tree contains members who have come from abroad in search of a better life. They have come from Italy and Spain under the Romans; Sweden, Norway and Denmark with the Vikings; France with the Normans, the Huguenots and after their Revolution; Holland after the Glorious Revolution; from Africa as slaves; Ireland after English conquest; India, Pakistan, Hong Kong and the rest of the Empire as it was built and dismantled; Jews have fled from persecution elsewhere and too often found little better here; Poles and even Germans stayed after the War; Ugandan Asians were sent here by Idi Amin and immigrants from the Caribbean crossed the Atlantic for a better life; South Africans fled Apartheid and most recently people from Eastern Europe, having thrown off the yoke of the Soviet Union have come here to find jobs as members of the European Union. Throughout there has been a steady stream of arrivals and departures fuelled by the UK’s position as a centre of world trade.

That list is long but by no means exhaustive. Almost none have been invited. They have come as conquerors, entrepreneurs and refugees. Many have been subjected to racism, suspicion, abuse and oppression on their arrival. Yet they have all made their mark on our economy, our culture and most particularly our language. That the UK is a microcosm of the world feeds our belief that the UK is at the centre of the world. Immigration is fundamental to our national psyche.

And yet all this would be irrelevant if today’s immigration brought none of those benefits. This, however, is plainly false. Immigration’s opponents live with the curious contradiction that immigrants both take our jobs and sponge off benefits. Both cannot be universally true.

It is true that many immigrants are willing to work harder for less money than their British born competition. They fill tedious positions performing manual labour picking fruit and waiting tables for the minimum wage – jobs many Britons flat out refuse to do. Without them, businesses across the country would be unable to compete and thousands of management and administrative jobs would be lost. When they have finished their degrees (paying handsomely for the opportunity) they stop waiting tables and take graduate jobs where their extra languages and knowledge of different cultures in part offsets the UK’s dreadful failure to teach these to our own kids. Many immigrants bring with them energy and entrepreneurial zeal, injecting the British economy with new products and ways of doing things. This innovation drives our economy forward and keeps us competitive internationally. It is true that many ‘native’ Brits do this too but the added spice from those who have undergone tremendous hardship to make a better life for themselves brings a welcome boost. They become sportsmen and women, actors, playwrights and authors, reinvigorating our cultural scene and supporting the UK as an international tourist destination.

In addition to their domestic benefits, they support Britain’s interests abroad as well. That the UK is known as the country that sheltered Mo Farah and enabled him to achieve buys us goodwill amongst the people of Somalia. A marginal benefit, perhaps, but potentially important in the battle against al-Shabaab’s al-Qaeda infused attempts at radicalisation in that part of the world. Similarly, when David Cameron is defending Britain’s interests in Europe, is it not easier for him to find allies when the Polish Premier knows that scores of his citizens are as dependent on the UK economy as we are?

There are costs to immigration, undoubtedly. Some control of immigration is necessary but the levels advocated by the current government are crazy. We should take as many immigrants as we can accommodate. None of their costs would be higher if we embraced them and many would be lower. There would be less temptation, for example, to hide from the state and live in the black economy. We should change our minds and welcome immigrants as the tonic this country has benefited from for centuries.

The idiocy of a wealth tax

In a fairly blatant attempt to placate the Lib Dem faithful before conference season, Nick Clegg floated (again) the idea of a wealth tax. Some Tories seem to think the idea has merit. It doesn't, it raises almost no money and would be a nightmare to administer.

Before I get on to my own objections, let's just look at two justifications put forward by its advocates:

1. Clegg's: to prevent social unrest. Really? Are the British people so violent that they would riot in the streets in protest at John Terry's wealth? And if they are, would they be placated by a 1% tax on large houses?

2. Some Tories': to shift the tax burden away from income and towards wealth, encouraging the aspirational. Ok, well, in order for this to enable a decrease in the income tax burden, the wealth tax would have to be substantial. The equivalent taxes in France raise a few billion Euros a year. You'd need at least a tenfold increase to make any impact on the £250billion in Income Tax and National Insurance* the government collects each year. Moreover, the aspirational middle classes are unlikely to distinguish between an income tax this year and a wealth tax next year, particularly given the latter continues after you've retired.

So what's the real problem with a wealth tax? Put simply, it would be incredibly expensive to administer. Astronomically so. Although, the Guardian naively believes it would be really simple:

The mechanism for collecting the tax could be straightforward though – higher rate taxpayers already file an annual tax return relating to their income, and pages could simply be added for a wealth statement. However, income tax is collected a year in arrears – if you were to try and do the same for wealth, you would be asking in January 2013 about assets held in 2011/12. People would need notice that they needed to keep the paperwork.**

This is nonsense. Most people have no idea what their net worth is. Why? Because unless it's cash held in a bank account, wealth doesn't really exist as a number. It's an estimate of the cash you would have if you sold everything. Why is that a problem? Because estimates are judgement calls and judgement calls can be argued about. Armies of tax accountants would make huge amounts of money arguing that assets were worth less than they at first appear. There would be huge incentives to invest in assets with opaque values. A new market in complex financial products would develop that returned income but appeared to have no taxable value would spring up (and that's definitely a route we want to go down). Worse still, many people would seek to hide assets altogether. The divorce courts already struggle to pin down the true net worth of rich individuals. Imagine doing that for everyone.

Here are just a few of the questions any substantial wealth tax would have to grapple with:

• How do you value complex financial products? Particularly, how do you value hedging instruments, derivatives and other assets whose value is based on future events?
• How do you distinguish between houses that require repair and houses that don’t? Bear in mind that many buyers of high end houses intend to make substantial changes anyway, so it isn’t clear value is added by making repairs.
• How do you deal with deliberate actions that decrease asset values (e.g. bricking up windows, burning down unwanted outbuildings etc)? Where people have valuable property they use but don’t intend to sell, they may well take action to decrease the value of elements they don’t care about.
• How do you deal with unnoticed issues? I’ve just discovered my house has subsidence. This massively decreases its value but it also means all previous values were wildly optimistic. Can I have my tax back please?
• How do you value debt, and which types of debt do you include?
• How do you value shareholdings in unlisted companies? Do you add a premium for having control of those companies? Which valuation method do you use? If you use earnings, what multiple do you use?
• How do you value intangible assets?
• How do you account for depreciation?
• How do you value (or even identify) offshore assets?
• Do you include the costs of realising the value of an asset in calculating someone’s wealth? If so, how do you estimate these?
• How do you value assets held in bank vaults? Come to think of it, how do you make sure people aren’t stashing cash under the bed or in their basement?

 I’m sure there are many, many more issues thrown up by the vast complexities of everyone's finances. The answers to the questions above are not trivial or easy to apply universally. It would require an enormous government bureaucracy to manage that would consistently be challenged in the courts. As a result, the system would be a nightmare to deal with and phenomenally expensive, rendering it a hugely inefficient way for the government to raise revenue.

There is one more issue I'd like to point out. When taxing wealth, you will very rarely be taxing a number in a bank account. The vast majority of this tax will be raised on non financial assets. As a result, you need a way to assess the values of said non financial assets. This will almost always be done with reference to market prices. The value of my house will be based on the selling prices of other, similar houses in the same area. The problem with this is, I don’t control those prices. The price of those houses is decided by an agreement between two people I have no influence over or contact with. And yet, that price will decide the value the government puts on my house and therefore the tax I owe. As a result, my tax burden is decided by an agreement between two people that is totally disassociated from me. If the seller negotiates a particularly high price, good on them but I’m screwed. Similarly, if the seller is desperate to offload said house, I end up a winner.

I don’t know about you, but I have a massive problem with that setup. It does not seem right, that someone's tax burden should be decided by something completely out of their control. In all other areas of tax, I have some level of control over it. I can choose not to accept a pay rise, or to spend all my money on Jaffa Cakes and children’s clothing. 

At the point where I am taxed based on the actions of others in this way, the tax system ceases to be anything other than the state taking money from me because it feels like it. I don’t like that.

I'm sure proposing a wealth tax seems like really good politics to Nick Clegg. To the rest of us, though, it should just be a really, really bad idea.

Sources:
* HMRC: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/tax_receipts/tax-receipts-and-taxpayers.pdf
** The Guardian, 29 August: http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/aug/29/clegg-emergency-wealth-tax?newsfeed=true

The Qatada decision protects us all, we should celebrate it

This week's furore over the failed deportation of Abu Qatada has been an unedifying spectacle indeed. Those determined to deport him have not only lambasted an institution that provides important protection to British citizens, they have also suggested that the government ignore the courts and accept whatever punishment is handed down.

Opponents of the ECHR have complained that the case shows the stupidity of human rights legislation. The courts have lost their mind, we are told, and should go back to defending the rights of people we like. Politicians of every stripe have queued up to attack the decision with tremendous gusto (who ever lost an election for attacking a terrorist? The West Wing says it, so it must be true). They point out quite how evil Qatada is, a convicted terrorist in Jordan and bilious preacher of hate. They are right that he seems to be a truly unpleasant piece of work.

And yet, even if Qatada is guilty of every accusation levelled at him, I cannot help but feel that the debate has demonstrated the vital role institutions like the ECHR play. It has been a clear demonstration of how easily our own justice system may ignore Human Rights. Worse, it has shown how willing those in power are to ignore those rights when it doesn’t suit them.

Human rights took root in our most enlightened moments during the 20th Century, usually after witnessing some dreadful atrocity. We recognised the common dignity of humanity and the necessity to protect every person, regardless of where they came from and so set down a few principles that we felt trumped others. It was a victory for our better angels over the demons that so often corrupt our morals. Moreover, it was made knowing that we would forget the horror of human rights abuses. We would forget how easily rights are eroded and how tempting it can be to ignore them. And so, at a moment when their importance was clear in our minds, we codified them and gave them incredible status within the law. We knew the day would come when we would think them unnecessary or unwieldy, so we made it phenomenally difficult to back out of them. The Qatada decision is not an expression of contemporary modern human rights madness; rather, it is a reminder from our better angels of the importance of  fair trials and how awful it becomes when we erode that right

That may be the lefty defence of the ECHR. There is also, however, an argument that appeals to the right-winger within me. If there is one lesson from the 20^th Century, it is how extraordinarily vulnerable we are to the overbearing power of the state. Both groups and individuals have suffered great harms and injustice at the hands of state institutions, often with the open consent of the majority. It is not just the victims of Nazi Germany and Communism who fall into this category. The treatment of prisoners (and protesters) in Northern Ireland, the introduction of control orders and repeated assaults on trial by jury in the UK alone show how willing governments can be to trample on human rights. Human rights legislation exists not to protect us from each other so much as to protect us from the state. With that in mind, it is logical that when this legislation is truly effective, it acts as a check against state actions, infuriating governments in the process. If everything ticks along smoothly with no controversy, I would be suspicious that the courts were not providing an effective check. That Abu Qatada's deportation should be stopped, to howls of anguish from the government, tells me that our current system is robust and effective. It proves that I can feel secure that the state cannot go beyond itself and abuse the freedoms I hold dear. Indeed, I now know that if the state one day comes for me (as, apparently, is its wont), the courts will protect me. 

Qatada is scum, but he is human. The courts have proved that even the worst and most hated in society will be protected. For a while at least, we can feel safe and protected against the vicissitudes of the state. For that, we should all celebrate.

P.S.

Ignoring whether we should welcome the decision of the courts, let us take a moment to consider the pathetic idiocy of those who encouraged Theresa May to deport Qatada and accept the consequences. In the UK, deliberately ignoring instructions from a court is an incredibly serious offence. Contempt of court frequently carries a jail sentence. In that context, to suggest it is ok for the Home Secretary so flagrantly to ignore a court decision is grossly irresponsible. Furthermore, every encouragement to ignore the court and deport Qatada tacitly includes the justification “because we can afford it”. Whatever fine the courts might hand down for such a transgression, goes the argument, the resources of the British state could cope. This attitude exists elsewhere in our legal system, where companies sometimes generate profits from transgressions that vastly outweigh the fines regulators can hand down. Similarly, the rich sometimes feel able to buy the right to break the law. It is disgusting and to validate this attitude by encouraging the government to take it is beneath contempt (Peter Bone – I’m looking at you).

Why everyone should ditch the outrage and listen to Diane Abbott

A leader in the Black community makes a comment on Twitter in which she generalises about white people. Cue gleeful outrage from an assortment of right wing commentators gleeful that one of the left's most articulate advocates has opened herself to the accusation of racism. 

Wow. Isn't it time we all grew up?

Abbott's comments were rather clumsy and unhelpful additions to any debate about race. Nevertheless, I cannot be outraged by them. Indeed, the only response I really have can be summed up with the phrase: "Am I bovvered?"

Here's why:

1) I don't have a right not to be offended and would prefer to err on the side of Abbott being able to say whatever the hell she likes.

2) Even if you take her words at their most pernicious meaning, I'm pretty sure they're not true and similarly sure Abbott doesn't believe them herself.

3) 142 characters isn't exactly a recipe for subtle and nuanced debate.

4) If that is a concern some people hold in private, it's probably useful for it to be aired in order to be refuted.

5) Many Black people still get a raw deal in this country and certainly have in the past. Some hyperbole producing anger is probably reasonable/ understandable/ forgivable. Take yer pick.

6) Sometimes people fuck up. Deal with it.

7) I have all the time in the world for Diane Abbott.

Racism is a serious thing. Daft generalisations should be challenged as unwise and unhelpful but to jump on them with quite so much alacrity is pathetic. To describe Abbott's comments as racist associates her with the purveyors of hatred, vitriol and violence. It validates racist views by creating the appearance that everyone is at least a little bit racist and therefore it is ok. It isn't ok and most people aren't racist (thanks, in part to leaders like Diane Abott).

Perhaps it's time we spent a little less time condemning people to score political points and a little more time confronting the issues.

How to get a Tory to agree with Laurie Penny

Nadine Dorries' amendments stem from her own anti-abortion prejudice and don't even deliver what they claim. They are an insidious attempt to restrict access to a service that helps thousands of women every year.

Over the last couple of days Nadine Dories has achieved a remarkable feat. As a result of her activities in the House of Commons and lobbying on the Health and Social Care Bill I find myself appalled by Government policy and in complete agreement Laurie Penny of the New Statesman - something I never really thought would happen.

Now I've never been a tremendous fan of the MP for Mid-Bedfordshire. She has campaigned to reduce the time limit on abortion and is a member of the socially conservative Cornerstone Group (motto: Faith, Flag, Family - creepy or what?). I don't think we're going to see eye to eye on a huge range of issues. Nevertheless, this week she has surpassed even her own chequered history.

Dorries worries that women seeking abortions don't have access to proper counselling before going through with the procedure. Some of the principal sources of this counselling are the abortion providers themselves. Since these providers receive money from the NHS every time they perform an abortion, they are financially incentivised to counsel vulnerable women to have abortions.

This is where the nonsense starts.

It paints abortion providers as institutions not that exist not to furnish women with the ability to choose, but to perform as many abortions as they can. This is mental! How would Dorries react to the suggestion that midwives should be prevented from advising pregnant women? After all, they depend on women giving birth for their livelihoods!

But, I hear you cry, surely you can't really object to ensuring the counselling we provide is independent? It should help women make the decision that's right for them not just provide a justification. Fine. But there are two responses to this:

1. There's no evidence that the current system doesn't provide independent advice already.
2. THAT'S NOT WHAT THE AMENDMENT DOES.

When you read Dorries' amendments, available here, they don't create a framework for ensuring abortion counselling is independent. Oh, they use the word "independent", sure, but their definition is intriguing:

Information, advice and counselling on abortion is independent where it is provided by:

"either a private organisation that does not itself provide for the termination of pregnancies or a statutory body".

In other words, counselling provided by the Catholic Church is independent. An evangelical Christian telling a teenage girl that she will burn in Hell if she terminates her pregnancy is independent. A professional counsellor employed by Marie Stopes explaining the pros, cons and risks of abortion cannot be independent.

I'll leave it to the experts to tell you the ways in which this will harm vulnerable women. However, I am happy to denounce it as a cynical attempt to manipulate thousands of women into making the decision Dorries wants them to make. It shouldn't be Tory policy and it certainly shouldn't be government policy.

If you agree, you can contact your MP through the Abortion Rights organisation.

An explanation, but not an excuse

The riots in London (and elsewhere in the UK) this week have presented us with a highly uncomfortable truth. A large proportion of our youth are willing, given the opportunity, to commit crime on an unprecedented scale. Faced with a police force unwilling or unable to stop them, they will rampage through their own communities, destroying everything that friends and neighbours have worked hard to build up.

These have been crimes perpetrated almost exclusively by apparently feral youths. Worse still, the victims have been those who should bear the least blame and most credit in these communities. The victims are honest and hardworking, providing important jobs and services where few of either exist. Many of them have risked a great deal to start businesses in difficult areas in the hope of a better future. That these people should have that hope trampled on for ephemeral consumer goods or the momentary high of a thieved bottle of vodka disturbs us all. Their dispassionate willingness to ruin livelihoods chills the blood of those anxiously watching through their own windows, praying the mob does not come for them. The victims were not bankers claiming massive bonuses while presiding over huge losses or politicians fiddling expenses. Neither were these attacks directed at the notoriously trigger-happy police officers of SO19, whatever the rights or wrongs of Mark Duggan's death may be.

All this has contributed to calls for a brand of policing more reminiscent of Cairo or Tehran than London; it has become fashionable, among people as well as politicians, to denounce the rioters as "mindless" and "purely criminal". Meanwhile, some on the left have bent over backwards to justify the looting. At one stage, the Guardian even quoted an historian describing the looting as "a political act". Both of these perspectives misread the truth of the situation.

For years, urban communities across the country have struggled with crime, poverty and drug use. They have been left behind by an economy that has disproportionately rewarded the richest whilst leaving the rest to pick up the scraps. At the same time, the inexorable march of technology has beamed the wealth of the rich into the front rooms of the poor. Quality of life is measured by the clothes you wear, TV's you own and money you can spend above all else.

Politicians have sought to seize the centre ground with policies that appeal to the middle classes. They have rewarded home ownership while shrouding the failure of inner-city education in the cloak of inflated exam results. Drug policies have incarcerated parents in need of treatment, leaving children without role models and resentful of the state. Our adoption laws force willing parents to wait while channelling desperate children into an overstretched care system that abuses and dehumanises them. Too many youth and mental health workers have been dismissed as unnecessary ancillaries rather than key components of the fabric of society.

All of this has served to create a group with a smaller stake in society than any since before the First World War. Children grow up in areas bereft of opportunities in families where few have worked in years. The unchecked march of drug abuse (and pathetically dogmatic response to it) has created a huge number of teenagers for whom law-breaking is the norm. In this context, should we really be surprised that, convinced that the police won't intervene, they go on the rampage?

At the same time, parents seem to have abrogated their responsibilities on a scale hitherto unimagined. The suggestion that perhaps they should have control of their children has too often been greeted with a shrug and a gesture at how few services the state provides for young people. The state has convinced too many people that raising children is its responsibility and not theirs. This has led them to abandon their responsibilities and leave their children to find entertainment on the street. Our benefits system rewards bad choices by funnelling money to teenage mothers and pushing the long-term unemployed onto incapacity benefit. Too often entering the workforce is a foolishly uneconomic decision. For those who do seek work criminal records, drug use and a lack of education has probably permanently excluded them from employment. The only way out exists through crime and many are accustomed to criminality at a young age by their peers and older siblings.

As a result, there is now a group that has little stake in society and no hope of establishing one. They grow up knowing that when the opportunity to profit through crime appears, it should be taken and over the last few days, a myriad of opportunities have opened up in front of them.

These communities have been ignored by politicians of all stripes - Labour because they will vote for nobody else, so why bother? and Conservatives for the same reason. Politicians have hid from the problems - they are too many and too difficult - and left communities disenfranchised and disenchanted.

This is part of the reason why we had riots and looting in London this week. A group of people who society had tried to ignore were given an opportunity and took it. That is an explanation, but it is not an excuse. After Saturday, people looted because they thought they could get away with it and they wanted to. We must not forget the livelihoods they willingly and knowingly destroyed. Nor must we forget the people made to feel unsafe in their own homes, afraid that their street would be next. We must not forget that these criminals were callous and destroyed the very communities they lived in.

We must think carefully about how we address the reasons why they are in a position where looting makes sense; but we must not lose sight of the fact that they chose to loot because they thought nobody would stop them or punish them. They must be proved wrong.

The Madness of Blue Labour

Staying away from the furore surrounding Ken Clarke today (a more eloquent defence than I can deliver is available here), let us return to Labour's new intellectual direction, Blue Labour.

It seems we must have an enemy...
All politics is, to an extent, confrontational. It is an exercise in choosing one thing over another, one interest over another. Almost always it requires not only one thing to be good, but another thing to be bad. Here at Liberal Tory, we have endeavoured to avoid defining who we are against, a product mostly of the fact that we disagreed with many on some issues: the Tories on immigration, Labour on the economy, the Lib Dems on constitutional reform.

Now, however, the Labour party have dredged up a train of thought that Liberal Tory cannot help but denounce as insane. Blue Labour stands opposed not only to every liberal value held by Liberal Tory, but also stands in denial of every economic fact mankind has so far discovered.

Swinging left by swinging right
The great brains of the party have come together and concluded that for Labour, "the future is conservative". Blue Labour encourages the party to retreat from its position as a leader of progressive liberalism and instead embrace a narrative of Englishness designed to appeal to working class voters on the right. This narrative tells the poor and the vulnerable that their lives have been broken by others in the outside world. It tells them to cling to their 'culture' and to resist change. It tells them that if only they hold fast to their "imagined" communal identity and rail against the evil world outside that their lives and communities will be made new again.

Frankly, this reeks of dog-whistle politics. Labour is embracing the BNP's narrative and abandoning the scores of voters who do not completely relate to "the popular symbols and iconography of Englishness" of which Blue Labour appears so fond. If, for example, you're not particularly up for singing in celebration of the Crusades and building Jerusalem in this green and pleasant land, Labour ain't for you.

Furthermore, it is a lie. These beliefs are a recipe that will leave communities stagnating in their own misfortune, refusing to accept that as the world changes, everyone must change with it. the Labour party has convinced communities of this before, only to watch them decay and disappear.

Politics for the sake of power
Blue Labour is not only wrong, it exists for a hideous reason. Its proponents do not believe they are right. They have decided it is the only way for them to win power. They have decided not to lead, not to make the case for a free and open England, but to sacrifice their convictions on the altar of high office. This is not behaviour that should be rewarded by the British public.

When parties disappear up their own arses
A quick glance through the articles and papers from Glasman et al tell me one thing. This is not a movement with which I am supposed to engage. It is not for the likes of me. These ideas are meant to be understood fully only by those who have read their Marx. Often, Glasman criticises Blairite reforms as 'managerial'. I am sure this stirs the souls of his academic brotherhood but for the rest of us, it is meaningless. As soon as a party starts to engage in this sort of theorising, it has spent too long in the ivory tower and should, quite frankly, go home.

Red Ed turns Blue - Part I

Wow. Is it me or is Ed Miliband's discovery and endorsement of the Blue Labour movement the single most howl-at-the-moon, batshit-crazy political idea since William Hague's 2001 election to keep the Pound? Is this intellectual train of thought not madder than a bag full of weasels?


And yet, could there be, amidst all the navel-gazing madness, a touch of genius? I think not. However, as a political manoeuvre four years before an election, it may yet bear fruit. 


Today: The sense in it
1. Look at the contributors - James Purnell, David Miliband, David Lammy etc are neither stupid nor bad politicians. A banal point it may be, but it would be unwise to dismiss Blue Labour as an insurrection of mad navel gazing academics.


2. The banking and market narratives - One thing that has hurt Labour over the past year is their inability to escape the dual charge of "you overspent" and "ok, even if it was all the bankers' fault, it happened on your watch". That Blue Labour grapples with this problem is a step in the right direction for Miliband. Furthermore, the British population is not convinced that it was spending by Labour that created the deficit. For every Tory out there, there is someone shouting from the Question Time audience that it is time we strung up the bankers. On top of all this, neither Tony Blair nor David Cameron has been able really to sell the benefits of markets to the British people. If Labour can generate a narrative that accepts and seeks to reverse their failures in financial regulation while also avoiding drifting towards statist interference and punitive taxation, they may yet resonate with the public. Glasman's ideas about democratising economic institutions may provide a framework within which Labour can perform such an act of political Houdinery.


3. Labour's dog whistle - When Ed Miliband writes "it is our families, friends and the places in which we live that give us our sense of belonging," I can see heads nodding around the country. This sort of sentence will speak to voters who feel their economic interests aligned with Labour yet their social beliefs with old-fashioned conservatism. Some of them now support the BNP. Many of them, we are told, are concerned about immigration. While here at Liberal Tory we think anti-immigration arguments are nonsense, they do have some electoral value. If Miliband continues to articulate these ideas, such sentences may prove particularly powerful in opposition to a PM who is respected as a leader by the electorate, but viewed as belonging only in Notting Hill.


4. Time - The collapse of the coalition and a snap election seems unlikely. The task for Ed Miliband is to present Labour as a changed, rethought and reinvigorated political force. A few headlines now about a changing Labour party will do his 2015 election campaign no harm at all.


Tomorrow: The madness of it...

A different law for Laws?

This week we heard what a bad man David Laws has been, prompting one Labour MP breathlessly to write to Scotland Yard demanding a full criminal investigation. See the Guardian barely control its glee here.

So what do I think here at Liberal Tory? Well, aside from my almost unbridled agreement with Laws' political views, I can't help but feel that the public is being deprived of an intelligent and able minister.

I buy completely the argument that he wanted to protect his sexuality. Similarly, I buy the argument that he could have claimed more money by claiming for his home in Yeovil legitimately. So, there was no pernicious motive and no gain from his wrongdoing. Yet there was wrongdoing, so it is right that he should be punished in some form.

So, has he been punished? Absolutely. He has been effectively suspended from the cabinet for a year, publicly condemned and suspended from the House for a week.

So is it time he returned to government? Absolutely. If official forms of punishment are to mean anything, they have to be a way for people to atone for what they have done. If we do not provide atonement through punishment, then that punishment is simply revenge, a communal lashing out at someone who has displeased us. In the case of David Laws, when he has completed his suspension, he should be welcomed back immediately. As soon as the PM has an opening for him, he should retake his place on the front bench and I hope the PM finds that opening quickly.

I can't help but feel though, that a quick trip to the voters would be the best thing. If Laws' constituents are willing to forgive him and return him to Parliament, then their opinion should be the only one that counts. If they are not willing to forgive him, then he would have no mandate and no place in the house.

A couple of supplementary thoughts:
On Question Time this week, someone asked if a person hiding their relationship status when claiming housing benefit should be similarly forgiven. Well, yes if they hadn't profited from it and if their motives had been pure and if they had already received a suitable punishment. If any of these things aren't true, then obviously not.

What bothers you more, that David Laws broke the rules or that Gordon Brown has only made 1 speech in a debate this year while submitting 9 written questions and attending less than 14% of votes? Not bad for £65,000 is it? Compare those numbers to Laws' 3 speeches, 83 written questions and more than 63% voting record*. If you want an example of someone taking their constituents and the public for a ride, look to the Rt Honourable Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.

*Figures from http://www.theyworkforyou.com.

Is choice really what we want from the NHS?

Since the local elections and AV referendum last week, the principal victim (aside from a host of Lib Dem councillors) seems to be Andrew Lansley's health reforms, long a matter of controversy for the government. Without wanting to delve into the rights and wrongs of the political battle, let's have a quick look at what's driving the proposals (and some of the opposition).


The rationale for the reforms essentially comes down to two factors: efficiency and patient control and choice.


The efficiency argument:
Lansley tells us that, while the NHS has been delivering improvements, it has been delivering very poor value for money in exchange for those service improvements. This is a fair enough assertion and makes sense when you consider the volume of money pumped into the NHS in the last decade. Lansley blames Primary Care Trusts and the legion of middle managers that comes with them - not exactly an uncommon Tory target. He believes they suck up resources that should sensibly be directed towards patients.


Maybe this is true. However, the NHS has been in a state of Maoist permanent revolution for a long time now. Whether it has been Public Private Partnerships, the introduction of targets, the removal of targets, new PCT's replacing old PCT's, new Health Secretaries replacing old ones, patient's charters and legal rights to care, the NHS has been being formed and reformed for at least a decade. Would not an equally compelling explanation for the NHS's inefficiencies be this constant upheaval? How could any organisation function effectively while keeping up this rate of change? It might well be a refreshing boost for a Health Secretary to turn round and just run the NHS, properly, for a little while. They could spend a few years working out the kinks in the system we have now, getting to know the way it really works and improving it incrementally.


That just isn't sexy enough though. If you were an ambitious minister, why would you go for incremental improvement when you could acquire Bevan-esque fame by introducing the all new NHS panacea? Which brings us on to...


Choice and patient control:
Lansley tells us that our GP knows better how to treat their patients than the central government does. Maybe. I'm sure it's a nice "10 word" political message that plays well in the nursing home heartland of the Tory vote. Then again, as we all know from the West Wing "ten word answers can kill you in political campaigns", and this is a particularly fatuous answer.


Apparently, I will have greater control over my treatment if my GP is involved in commissioning the service. I will be able to choose which hospital to go to and which doctor should treat me. At last, I will be blessed with the final objective of the last two governments: choice in public services! Manna will flow from central government heaven as everyone is treated by their favourite doctors and taught by their preferred teachers... Hallelujah!!


A couple of things spring to mind here though:


1: Will I care?
Having recently broken my leg, I can't help but feel that most NHS users won't really care about choice. At the point where you're wheeled into A&E from your fall or your car accident you're not exactly in any mood to break out the medical journals. Are you seriously going to try and figure out where is the best place to go for a relatively routine operation? No. What you do want, however, is to rely on the fact that there will be somebody there who can perform it competently and quickly. And what do I know about my treatment anyway? I'm not a doctor? I pay for the NHS so that there is somewhere I can go to be told what needs to happen and for that to happen, not so that I can have an existential crisis over the relative benefits of an intra-medullary rod or a full leg cast. 


2: Choice is bullshit anyway.
Ok, I'll admit, if I'd just been told I had bone cancer, I'd prefer to go to the best hospital available, spurning my local cheap and cheerful (but not cutting edge) oncologist. But that's exactly the point, everyone makes that choice. Nobody puts their hand up for the inferior treatment, in the same way that nobody puts the bad school down as first choice. The cutting edge hospitals fill up and everyone get indignant when they're told "yeah, you could choose to go there, but there's no way you'll ever actually get a bed there".


Maybe I have to make a trade-off between waiting time and quality. Fine, but what do I know about making that decision? How does my chance of survival alter with untreated time vs. quality of doctor? At the end of the day, I have bone cancer or leukaemia or HIV not a bloody medical degree... Wouldn't I be happier to be allocated a competent doctor by an efficient system that got good treatment to me quickly?


The whole story around choice is pure political mythology. The nature of choice is that you have to give something up to get what you want. That doesn't really work when something's free at the point of delivery...


Finally, a note on private provision:
One massive source of opposition to the bill is that "private companies will take the profitable services, sticking local hospitals with the complicated expensive services"...


So?


If the private company does take the profitable services, that will be because they can do them for less than a public provider (even though they have to factor in a profit margin). This is good news, we are saving money. We can use some of this money that we didn't have before to pay for more complicated, expensive treatments provided publicly. Result!


How on earth can this argument possibly be made in opposition to the bill? Of course, because all private companies are evil, bloodsucking vampire squid squeezing the life out of our beautiful country.  Well, maybe, but more on that another day...

Universities, public policy and incentives

So, today's source of liberal fury is the Guardian's revelation that the government plans to allow universities to offer "off-quota" places to British students able to pay top-dollar.

The latest mental university funding idea...

The basic idea behind this is that top universities will offer all their government sponsored places to poor kids and ask all the rich kids to cough up, regardless of how good they are. The result? More poor kids go to Oxbridge and - hey presto - social mobility!

Only... THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN!

Once again, those creating public policy seem to be doing it on the back of a fag packet with a big helping of wishful thinking. In all the ideas around funding universities, relatively little attention is paid to how universities and students are actually likely to behave. In this instance, the government is expecting universities to massively disincentivise good rich students from coming. Why would they ever want to do that? Isn't it more logical that they would offer the cheap places to their top choices, regardless of background, then offer expensive places to the rich kids who didn't make the first cut but could probably end up with a 2:1 with a bit of work.

So what is the end result? More rich kids go to Oxbridge, poor kids get the same bum deal and social immobility is entrenched. Terrific.

Equally, Oxbridge et al could just keep the number of places they offer the same, charging rich kids more for the privilege. This may be good for Oxbridge, but it is not good for anyone else. It will make it easier for Oxbridge to avoid offering bursaries etc to poorer students, since their fee structure will already look highly progressive. As a result, the policy serves only to inflate the cost of an education at our top universities.

Policies like these really get my Tory goat. For starters, they massively increase the impression that Tories are there to serve the rich - I've a sneaking suspicion that this policy comes from a rich minister afraid his kid can't compete for a place as things stand. Furthermore, this is a pretty stupid idea from an economic perspective. Real equality of opportunity guarantees that the country gets the most out of its best people. Turning Oxford and Cambridge into bastions of privilege deters others from even applying. More bright kids from poor backgrounds will give up on Oxbridge and uni altogether. They won't get the best from their potential and neither will the country.

So all in all, thumbs down from a Liberal Tory perspective...